More than any previous election in modern times, this one seems to be a three horse race. The Lib Dems appear poised to improve substantially on their number of seats in the Commons, no party has a commanding lead in the polls and there is a strong possibility of a hung parliament in the United Kingdom General Election of 2010.

Such a scenario, in which no party has an overall majority, tends to amplify disproportionately the power of the third party, which then holds the balance of power, and with it, effectively, the keys to Number Ten Downing Street.

Is there anything the two major parties can do to defend themselves, and the interests of their voters, from a Liberal Democrat leadership in a position to make demands? Is there a way to level the playing field a little?

Well, yes. Actually, there is. David Cameron and Gordon Brown can form a pact.

I don't, of course, mean an agreement to work together in government. The rank and file of each party would tend to reject that rather firmly and such an agreement would be fragile indeed in the Commons. While both Labour and the Conservatives might be prepared, reluctantly, to forge a parliamentary alliance with the Lib Dems, they won't do so with each other.

No. I mean an agreement, drawn up secretly and witnessed by senior members of each party, detailing a list of policy points which neither party would be prepared to concede to the Lib Dems. So for example, Cameron and Brown could agree that under no circumstances would either permit Britain to enter the Euro without a referendum. They could agree, say, that neither would be prepared to enact legislation to introduce proportional representation.

Because make no mistake, Nick Clegg's position in the event of a hung parliament will be strong indeed. Even with fewer seats than either Labour or the Conservatives, he would have greater negotiating power than either of his two other main party counterparts. The electoral triangle is not equilateral. He can work with either of the other two parties, but the Conservatives and Labour will never share power between themselves. Barring a vanishingly unlikely breakthrough on the part of one of the minor parties, if Cameron and Brown need to look for an ally in government, Nick Clegg's Lib Dems are the only show in town.

But with a carefully negotiated agreement in place between the two bigger parties, if Nick Clegg should come to chat to David Cameron next Friday, then when he (perhaps) offers to support a Conservative government in return for abandoning Trident, Cameron can turn him down politely, assured in the knowledge that he won't get that concession from Brown either.

Shouldn't the two major party leaders be thinking about having a quiet chat in their mutual interest sometime in the next few days?

A badly edited version of this piece appeared in the Leicester Mercury newspaper on Thursday, 29th April 2010 and can be seen online here

As I type, Gordon Brown is on his way to Buckingham Palace to seek the dissolution of Parliament. The long-awaited General Election of 2010 will be held on May 6th, five years and one day after the last.

I remember typing a blog piece at the equivalent moment before the last election. I loathed (and still loathe) BLiar with a passion, and was desperate to see the end of NuLabour in power. I was disappointed of course, but there was more or less no chance of a change of government. I remember maintaining a faint hope that BLiar would trip over a massive political banana skin that would cause an upset, but on the whole it's fair to say that it was a General Election that didn't happen. From the outset, no-one seriously expected that a change of government was on the cards. And in any case, in terms of ideology and policy there was hardly anything to choose between the two main parties. They more or less fought over who was more competent to manage the business of government. The most memorable campaign pledge from the Conservatives was to make hospitals cleaner. We didn't really have an argument on our hands.

This time however, there's a clear choice between two distinct economic strategies, and anything could happen. A hung parliament is widely predicted, with no party holding a majority of seats in the Commons. In that scenario, either Cameron or Brown could be Prime Minister on May 7th. There's half a chance that Labour could hold onto a reduced majority in the Commons, but it's more likely I suspect that the Conservatives will gain the majority. I expect that the Conservatives will win by about 20 seats.

I don't hold Gordon Brown in the same low contempt that I did BLiar by any means. I find him dour but likeable and honourable; basically a decent and honest man. But he's also an ineffective Prime Minister and more importantly for me, the political party that he leads has, mostly at the hands of his loathsome predecessor, become a byword for institutionalised dishonesty and corruption. And while the current government may not have caused the financial meltdown and consequent global recession that has been the most prominent feature of the political landscape in the last parliament, I have no doubt that they made us more vulnerable to it, and handled it badly. We eventually emerged from recession one of the weakest economies in Europe, having gone into it one of the strongest. I don't have any confidence at all in Labour's ability to lead a recovery or take the necessary steps to reduce our massive deficit.

And quite honestly, I've loathed everything the Labour Party stands for all my adult life and then some.

You may have noticed that I haven't mentioned the Liberal Democrats so far. Or equally likely, you may not have noticed. They are a party of opportunist lightweights and amateurs without a credible policy base. Their most recent idea, for example, is to spend billions of pounds on reopening miles of disused railway track at a time when public spending badly needs to be cut back. I don't take them seriously as a political force except as a repository for tactical votes, and happily they have zero chance of forming a government.

I love an election campaign, and I'm very much hoping to see the end of NuLabour in government next month. Bring it on.